In the previous article, I recommended drawing vision. We can share the image of a peaceful and flourishing world. What kinds of activities do we need to do to achieve the vision?
Now a lot of countries are implementing economic sanctions on Russia. However, it might not be an effective measure to cease the fire immediately. Let’s broaden our eyes and find other options. Let’s change our shoes and see the unseen part, structure. In other words, use our insights.
Let’s look at this situation from Russia’s perspective.
In the cold war era, NATO’s primary purpose is to respond to threats from the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact allies. After the cold war, Warsaw Pact dissolved, therefore its original role finished. however, NATO remains and changes the purpose to stabilize East European countries and respond to terrorism.
After the cold era, NATO is expanding eastward and some neighboring countries of Russia joined it. Russian President Vladimir Putin clearly declared that this movement is a threat to Russia at the Munich Security Conference in 2007.
In addition, the biggest neighboring country Ukraine has given various threats to Russia, such as unstabilized political situation, security problems with the Russian navy base (Black sea fleets) in Sevastopol Crimea, and Russian people in Ukraine (around 17% of the total population).
Using system thinking, we can draw the above two causal loops diagrams. There are two factors to increase the level of Russia’s fear, NATO eastward expansion, and Ukraine’s political instability. Those are two reinforcing loops.
President Putin’s speech in 2007 might be the signal of an overshoot of his fear. However, NATO has not changed its policy even he requested the US again in 2022, then collapsed.
The economic sanction will be one more reinforcing loop to increase Russia’s fear. From the ancient era, the fear of emerging power triggered a war. (Thucydides Trap)
There was a mechanism of cooperation between NATO and Russia. It was called the NATO Russia Council (NRC) before the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Russia was the sub-member state of NATO. However the lack of authority for Russia comparing the regular member states.
What if we would establish a new security mechanism NATO states and Russia have the same level of authority?
What if we would form a new security system that all countries participate in?
This is a great opportunity to redesign our world peace system.